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Member Since: Tue, 22-May-01
Nov 8 14 4:02 PM
Member Since: Tue, 29-Jan-02
Nov 8 14 11:20 PM
Member Since: Tue, 11-Mar-03
Nov 9 14 7:21 AM
LeoJr wrote:I suppose I can see that potential. His argument is inherently weak to begin with - hell, in one of his articles, he's basically complaining that Israel is better able to defend itself from the Hamas rockets than Gazans can against Israeli bombs, as if balance of power vs Hamas is what they Israelis should strive for.
No change there then - his argument throughout the Cold War was that if the US built a missile defence system then it would be able to attack the Soviets with impunity. Therefore, it would automatically launch a full nuclear strike against the Soviets - to which the Soviets would respond, the US missile defence system wouldn't work and everybody would die. He's applying the same (horribly flawed) argument to the Israel-Palestine situation where it makes even less sense - indeed, it magnifies some of the flaws in his arguments.
Without any form of missile defence, for instance, if the US or USSR detected an incoming ICBM launched from the other heading their way they will almost certainly find themselves in a use-it-or-lose-it situation with their own missiles. That means they're almost certain to launch a full strike on the opposition, which the opposition will know and therefore since they know what's happening the only logical course of action for them to take - even if the first launch was an accident - is to follow it up with a full counterforce strike. All the missiles fly and everybody dies. With an ABM system, there's a good chance of that first missile being intercepted and people having the chance to talk and find out what the hell happened before being stampeded into starting a war.
Similar arguments hold here with Iron Dome - when the rockets start hitting Israeli schools, the pressure to launch reprisals will be intense. If they're regularly shot down and only make holes in the desert, that pressure is reduced and any reprisals can at least be properly planned (with the concomitant reduction in civilian casualties).
Basically the guy should be gagged and then beaten with copies of Thinking about the Unthinkable and On Thermonuclear War until he accepts that reality and his view of the world are deeply divergent...
Member Since: Wed, 28-Aug-13
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